Massive Eruption in the Philippines: Devastating Consequences and Potential Climatic Impact

Caroline Weiss

The Taal Volcano, regarded as one of the most dangerous in the world, exploded for the first time in 43 years on January 12, 2020, spewing ash up to 14 kilometers (nine miles) high. This eruption surprised volcano monitors at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), who had noticed tremors beginning in March 2019 but did not predict the eruption’s quick development. Prior eruptions have been deadly: an eruption continued for six months in 1754, 1,335 people were killed in 1911 and 190 more lives were lost in 1965. Located on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, south of the capital Manila, the Taal Volcano’s recent eruption has had devastating consequences. 

Approximately one million people living near Manila (17-kilometer danger zone) have been commanded by authorities to evacuate. Residents are assisted by military vehicles and, as of January 13th, 25,000 of them were living in the 200 temporary evacuation shelters arranged by federal authorities. Furthermore, ash from the eruption reached Quezon City north of Manila, causing all flights at the international airport to be delayed. Since this substance is even heavier than snow, it rapidly builds up and can cause roofs to collapse. Other dangers include earthquakes, mudflows (powerful currents of ash and water vapor), fatal toxic gases, and health risks from exposure to volcanic ash. 

In Manila and nearby provinces, classes have been canceled since January 13th. Power remains off in most of the area. The Coast Guard has had to intervene to stop people from returning to their homes in attempts to save valued possessions such as photos and electronics. On January 14th, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana advised proclaiming the island a “no man’s land” due to its “sulfuric sludge” and the possibility of another explosion.

Between natural dangers, climate change, environmental deterioration, and poverty, Filipinos face many deadly conditions. Although the people are historically incredibly resilient, natural disasters such as the Taal eruption cause unimaginable grief, such as the loss of inherited family homes. Globally, especially in poorer countries, volcanoes are undermonitored; perhaps one future step toward preventing so much human suffering from natural hazards would be to collectively invest more in advanced monitoring technology.

Indicating another violent eruption, the alert level assigned by the PHIVOLCS is four (out of five) in spite of recent reduction in activity. Predicting eruptions is difficult, but history is a fairly reliable indicator—in the past 500 years, Taal has erupted more than 30 times (Figure 1). Implications of a second explosion include the following: pollution of air and water of distant areas due to ash traveling up to 100 kilometers (62 miles), illness caused by glass shards entering peoples’ lungs, and potential climatic impacts. So far, the sulfur dioxide released into the air from this explosion is not enough to noticeably affect the climate, but potential future eruptions could emit more sulfur dioxide (Figure 2). A significant addition of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere could cause a short-term global cooling effect by reflecting solar radiation. For example, approximately 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide and ash were ejected up to 12 miles high when another volcano in the Philippines, Mount Pinatubo, erupted on June 15, 1991. These gases and solids remained in the stratosphere, encircling Earth, for three weeks.

Figure 1: Taal eruption history (1572-2020). The current eruption is classified as phreatic.

Volcanic eruptions of this size and scope can affect global climate by reducing tropospheric temperatures, decreasing the amount of solar radiation hitting Earth’s surface, and altering circulation patterns in the atmosphere. If Taal reaches a magnitude resembling that of Mount Pinatubo, the immense amount of gases and ash released will form sulfuric aerosols, sub-micron particles composed of  approximately 75% sulfuric acid, which can remain in the stratosphere for up to four years. These aerosol clouds change Earth’s radiative equilibrium by absorbing radiation from Earth and diffusing incoming solar radiation. In general, large-scale eruptions result in tropospheric cooling (with the exception of a trend of tropospheric warming in winter) and stratospheric heating. The effects of volcanic activity on the global climate can be exacerbated by anthropogenic emissions, specifically chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the stratosphere; CFCs catalyze chemical reactions on aerosol surfaces, amplifying ozone depletion.

Figure 2: Stratospheric sulfur dioxide concentrations as observed on January 13, 2020.

Ultimately, the Taal Volcano’s recent eruption has had traumatic effects on many people living in nearby cities. Residents of this region of the Philippines still face the impact of pollution and an unpredictable environment. Possible eruptions in the near future could alter the climate and contribute to the destruction of stratospheric ozone.

Posted: January 24, 2020

Works Cited

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